ASX 200 closes lower, key jobs data out tomorrow — as it happened

That's all for today, thanks for reading the ABC's business and markets blog. Keep your eyes peeled tomorrow for key employment data out mid morning which we will bring you here on the blog, along with other key developments.

The Australian share market has ended Wednesday lower, falling -0.41% after a day of losses, retreating from a record high just yesterday.

10 of 11 sectors finished in the red

As we reported, global stocks retreated after a report from chipmaker ASML stoked concerns. And Australia followed suit, with losses across several sectors today.

Gold miners were topping the ASX 200, with Evolution Mining (who also released a favourable production report today) leading the charge, as did financials.

IDP Education fared the worst - perhaps due to concerns about the government slated international student visa changes, which would impact its business providing services to overseas students. Mining companies (apart from gold) were also among the bottom movers.

New analysis from Combank economists would indicate so.

A note from their global economic and markets research team states:

"We are confident that the worst of the stress in the rental market is likely behind us and rents inflation is set to ease."

That's good news for renters and good news for those attempting to tame inflation in the economy because, as the Combank note says, rents remain a  big driver of above target inflation.

They note that data from CoreLogic shows advertised rents were flat or falling in many cities.

The reason? Combank puts it down to 2 factors: households economising on housing (read: more share houses) and population growth slowing.

"Higher average household size and less population growth are combining to reduce demand and take some of the heat out of the rental market. This is manifesting through lower advertised rents and vacancy rates that have started to tick up from very low levels. This likely means that the worst of the rental market squeeze is now behind us. There is a lag from an easing in rental market conditions to a response in rents inflation but directionally, rents inflation is set to moderate."

More on that forecast from the global chip maker that sent markets into a spin overnight.

Dutch-based ASML is Europe's biggest tech firm and makes computer chip equipment.

On Tuesday they forecast lower-than-expected 2025 sales and bookings due to weakness in the semiconductor markets. The company's CEO said that was leading to "customer cautiousness".

ASML's shares saw the biggest one day drop since 1998 as a result — down 16%.

In a statement, its chief executive, Christophe Fouquet, said:

"We expect our 2025 total net sales to grow to a range between 30-35 billion euros, which is the lower half of the range" previously forecast

The disappointing earnings and outlook dragged down chip stocks around the world.

With Reuters

An update on the app trouble affecting some Westpac and St George customers:

As we've been reporting today, customers with those two banks have experienced difficulties accessing their internet banking for the third day in a row.

While a Westpac spokesperson told ABC News this afternoon that services were restored, the ABC has been told some customers are still unable to login to St George or Westpac apps, while others have been able to gain access.

If you want to share your experience about this please leave a comment or get in touch with our team at the bottom of this news story:

Fascinating post by my colleague Gareth on Australia's plummeting birth rate. Interestingly, on my trip to Korea a few months back, an expert there was saying South Korea, which has the lowest fertility rate in the world, should look to Australia's model of immigration to boost population growth. A no doubt controversial proposition for some in the country.

Here's a link to a short video I made about it, speaking to young people in Seoul about why they believe the birth rate is so low: watch here

New Bureau of Statistics data out today shows Australia's fertility rate has hit a record low.

There were 286,998 births registered in Australia in 2023, resulting in a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.50 babies per woman.

Beidar Cho, ABS head of demography statistics, said: "The record-low total fertility rate is because there were fewer births in most states and territories".

Over the past 30 years, the TFR has slowly dropped from 1.86 in 1993 to 1.5 in 2023.

This decline has been most prominent among women aged 15 to 19 years where the age-specific fertility rate has fallen by more than two-thirds.

The age-specific fertility rate of women aged 20 to 24 years has also seen a large decline.

The median age of mothers has risen to 31.9 years.

That's been supported by the age-specific fertility rate of women aged 40 to 44 years almost doubling (to 15.1 per 1,000 women) when compared with 30 years ago.

“The long-term decline in fertility of younger mums as well as the continued increase in fertility of older mums reflects a shift towards later childbearing," Ms Cho said.

"Together, this has resulted in a rise in median age of mothers to 31.9 years, and a fall in Australia's total fertility rate."

Economists at NAB have given their take on the state of the economy in key markets. Chinese stocks and global commodity prices  have benefited from stimulus measures there but they won't be enough to get growth back on track, in NAB's view:

"If the government fails to deliver on expectations of material stimulus, the gains in equity and commodity markets may unwind"

They've revised up forecasts for the United States economy with a positive outlook for growth:

"While the Fed is expected to cut rates (and our central case is for 25bp cuts per meeting until rates return to neutral), stronger than expected employment and inflation data for September have tempered market expectations about how quickly this may occur and raised the possibility of the Fed pausing in the near term. This is a reminder that inflation remains high and that if it does not come down as expected, central banks will need to maintain restrictive policy settings in place for longer."

NAB economists raised concerns about the Eurozone and revised down forecasts for growth, largely due to declines in the German GDP.

Overall, they see the global economy expanding by 3.1% in 2024 and 2025, then by 3.2% in 2026.

But uncertainty around the pace of central bank rate cuts, instability in the Middle East and potential policy changes after the US election are all factors that could change the course.

The Australian share market is trading lower at lunch time today with the ASX 200 down 0.32% at 12:30 AEDT.

It's a sea of red with only financials in the green (or blue, in the case of our data below), while academic and educational services are leading the losses.

The falls follow losses in Chinese and US stocks

In terms of individual listed companies, miners have been feeling the impacts of a fall in oil prices overnight but gold miners are the exception:

Bank of Queensland is the top mover at the moment, after it posted an increase in annual profit.

A good question by a blog reader on why we're all charged as a percentage of the cost of the good or service rather than a flat fee (although I know quite a few places that do just charge a flat fee).

Worth investigating this one in our future journalism on this topic...

Nadia Daly here taking the reins for the rest of the day on the blog.

I'll bring you developments on the Australian share market and broader business world as they happen this afternoon.

Please keep questions and comments coming and we'll try to get through as many as possible.

The federal government's move to crackdown on "unfair trading practices" has been welcomed by consumer groups.

The reforms, slated for next year, will end hidden fees and dynamic pricing - where a product's price changes during the transaction process.

Consumer Action Law Centre chief executive Stephanie Tonkin says her organisation has been calling for stronger consumer protections for years.

"The harms are well documented. The unfair trading prohibition is a critical missing piece of the Australian Consumer Law, which will drive fairer conduct in Australia's marketplace.

"Subscription traps, dark patterns, manipulating choice, unfair and discriminatory pricing and multi-level marketing are just some examples of unfair practices by businesses, and the ongoing harm to consumers is immense."

Ms Tonkin is also calling for consumer guarantee reforms.

"[They] are very long overdue. The most common presenting issue on Consumer Action's legal advice lines is businesses failing to meet the consumer guarantees or provide remedies like refunds and repairs.

"Stronger penalties will incentivise businesses to lift their game and meet the basic rights consumers can expect when buying goods and services."

Sarah Hunter, Reserve Bank assistant governor (economic), spoke to the Citi Australia and New Zealand Investment Conference earlier this morning.

The title of her speech was: "Inflation Expectations – Why They Matter and How They Are Formed."

The RBA also released a research discussion paper this morning to coincide with the event. It's a much more detailed look at inflation expectations. The paper's based on research the RBA's economists have done themselves in partnership with colleagues in academia.

In her speech this morning, Ms Hunter said "inflation expectations" are important for central bankers for a few reasons.

"Macro-economists generally think that a prerequisite for consistently achieving low and stable inflation over time is well-anchored inflation expectations," she said.

"That is, people across the economy believe inflation will generally average a low rate (in Australia's case, 2–3%), and they make decisions based on this underlying belief that becomes self-reinforcing.

"Indeed, this is a key lesson from economic history; there are multiple episodes that demonstrate the damage de-anchored expectations can cause, and the policy effort and welfare costs associated with re-anchoring them.

"Türkiye’s current experience is just one example," she said.

And she produced this graphic.

It shows how, in Türkiye, inflation jumped above 80% (!) in 2022 and interest rates are currently sitting at 50% (!) in a bid to drag inflation back down.

It's an extreme example, but it drives the point home. If people in Türkiye have come to expect that inflation will be well over 40-50%, it will definitely be affecting how they make financial and economic decisions.

It all gets back to the idea that, if the RBA can convince Australians that annual inflation will be running somewhere around 2-3% over the medium to long-term, it will be easier for the RBA to actually keep inflation running around 2-3%.

That's what they talk about when they say they want to keep everyone's inflation expectations "well-anchored."

Ms Hunter spent the rest of her speech talking about the new model the RBA's economists have been working on, and applying to different data series, to see what kind of information they can glean about the inflation expectations of different groups in society.

In short, she said the RBA has been able to better analyse how expectations have evolved during the recent high-inflation period. And it has good news:

• Short-term expectations appear to be converging towards long-term expectations, and these have remained anchored through the recent past.
• There’s no evidence of expectations being more persistent than normal.
• And there’s even some evidence of households and unions extrapolating less from recent inflation, at least during the period of higher inflation.
• We need to be mindful of certain prices that may be particularly ‘salient’ for households. But such prices work in both directions, and recently have been working to bring expectations down faster.

Ms Hunter also told her audience that her presentation was drawing heavily on a presentation given by RBA staff, earlier this year, at one of the first ‘Policy Issues Meetings’ with RBA Board members.

"These new meetings have been very well received by Board members," she said.

"They have appreciated the opportunity to explore policy-relevant topics in more depth and to meet with more of the staff that are engaged in the work.

"In turn, staff have valued the additional engagement with their work, so it’s been a clear win-win."

You can check out the RBA's new research discussion paper here:

AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver has weighed in on what China's latest stimulus measures mean for Australia's economy (which chief business correspondent Ian Verrender wrote about last week if you need to catch up) .

"Despite a slump in Australian goods exports going to China in 2021 (from around 42% of the total to 30%) and weak Chinese nominal growth the Australian economy has been relatively resilient compared to its past correlation to China reflecting a combination of:

- solid bulk commodity prices

- strong population growth

- and a muted mining investment cycle.

"So a stimulus driven cyclical rebound in Chinese growth may not provide as big a boost to the Australian economy as it might have in the past.

"But it will still help support export demand, commodity prices and resources shares. And it will likely help keep the iron ore price tracking above federal government’s budget assumptions albeit the boost to the budget (via stronger mining profits) won't be as strong as it has been over the last two financial years."

The Australian Financial Complaints Authority (AFCA) has commented on the ongoing outage affecting Westpac and St George and what customers can do if they're affected:

"AFCA encourages consumers impacted by these outages to contact their bank in the first instance and discuss options to resolve any outstanding concerns.

"We understand that system outages are frustrating and can cause inconvenience, however, AFCA can only consider complaints about system outages if a consumer has experienced a loss, and the complaint otherwise falls within our Rules.

"If you encounter difficulties which you are unable to resolve directly with your bank, AFCA may be able to consider your complaint. You can register your complaint with AFCA by using our online complaint form or by calling 1800 931 678."

- Natalie Cameron, AFCA lead ombudsman for banking and finance

The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) says our super system has experienced a slight drop in global rankings.

According to the latest Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index report (what a mouthful), Australia now ranks sixth globally, down from fifth place last year. 

The index evaluates pension systems based on: adequacy, sustainability, and integrity.

Australia maintained a high score in integrity, but with our aging population and rising cost of living, there were, perhaps unsurprisingly, concerns around adequacy and sustainability.

Here's the association's chief executive, Mary Delahunty:

"Australia's superannuation system remains robust and an envy of the world, but the latest ranking underscores the need for continuous refinement.

"We must continue to address gaps in retirement income adequacy, particularly in the face of increasing life expectancies and economic pressures."

The report suggests the federal government should introduce a superannuation contribution for primary carers of young children.

ASFA said recent legislation adding super payments on government paid parental leave was good progress.

Evolution Mining and Bank of Queensland are the leaders this morning, up +5.3% and +4.3%, respectively. 

At the bottom of the ladder and adding to its legal mess, Super Retail Group is down -2.5% followed closely by Web Travel Group which fell about -2.6% 

Thanks for the comment Natty, always great to hear from you!

Not so great is a third day of issues for Westpac's online banking and mobile app — the bank posted on X two hours ago saying it was working to fix the problem.

We haven't heard anything further from them.

But if you are affected, you can let us know here:

The market has opened and almost all sectors are down.

Education is the only one up at +0.7%.

Utilities recorded the biggest drop at -0.9%.

Tech slid -0.6%, and the financial sector saw a slight dip at -0.1%.

• ASX 200: -0.5% to 8,279 points (live values below)
  
• Australian dollar: -0.1% at 66.92 US cents
  
• S&P 500: -0.8%  to 5,815 points
• Nasdaq: -1% to 18,315 points
• FTSE 100: -0.5% to 8,249 points 
• EuroStoxx 50: -1.5% to 4,448 points
• Brent crude: -3.7% to $US74.62/barrel
• Spot gold: flat at $US2,661/oz 
• Iron ore:  -1.2% to $US106.30 /tonne
• Bitcoin: +0.3% to $US66,672

Prices current around 10:20am AEDT.

Live updates on the major ASX indices: