VIDEO: Rebels have seized the city of Aleppo in Syria

NORMAN HERMANT, REPORTER: Syria’s long civil war seemed stuck in time until last week.

JOYCE KARAM, AL-MONITOR.COM: For eight years, the conflict has been just frozen but what we saw over the last few days has completely upended that status quo. 

NORMAN HERMANT:  Journalist Joyce Karam has covered the Middle East for two decades.

She says that upended status quo saw Islamist rebels contained in the Idlib region in the country’s northwest breakout.   

JOYCE KARAM:  It's a huge shift in the war. It's practically a city, the city of Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria after the capital Damascus, that was taken over by the Syrian rebels.

NORMAN HERMANT:  The advance was lighting fast and soldiers loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad quickly abandoned the city. It’s now under the control of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS.

Australia has designated the group a terrorist organisation.

JOYCE KARAM:  But it wasn't always HTS. The group was first formed in 2011. It was an offshoot of ISIS.

They reinvented themselves. They're still very much in their language. When you listen to them, they're still very much jihadists, but they're okay now in calling themselves rebels.

NORMAN HERMANT:  The HTS rebels are just one part of the complicated landscape of Syria’s civil war.

They’re backed by Turkey but next to them in the northeast are the Kurdish dominated Syrian Democratic Forces which Turkey opposes.

Also in the east are Iranian backed remnants of ISIS, they’re being fought by the US.

Assad’s regime still holds vast swaths of the country relying on key allies Iran and Russia for support.       

The fall of Aleppo to HTS forces caught many in the local community by surprise. Said Ajlouni is with the Australian Syrian Association. 

SAID AJLOUNI, AUSTRALIAN SYRIAN ASSOCIATION:  During the last eight years, people in Idlib and the surrounding border with Turkish living in camps, and they have been struggling here, and they feel that the Syrian problem has been forgotten nationally and internationally.

NORMAN HERMANT:  HTS has moved to reassure Aleppo’s residents there will not be a harsh jihadist administration in the city.   

SAID AJLOUNI: Although they may have Islamic background, but they are not acting as Daesh or ISIL used to act. Now they are spreading the message, we are here to help people. 

NORMAN HERMANT:  The question is, will that that message be the reality of life under HTS rule.     

Within hours of Aleppo falling Assad scrambled to Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin. 

Then he sat down with Iran’s foreign minister back in Damascus. 

Tehran’s backing has been crucial for the Assad’s regime’s survival, but Joyce Karam believes now there are no guarantees.   

JOYCE KARAM:  Iran is also in a, in a precarious spot. Its economy is also not doing well. It's been fighting a war of attrition against Israel, 

I'm not sure they actually have the appetite to be as involved in Syria militarily, as they were, between 2012 and now. 

NORMAN HERMANT:  Iran has said it will consider sending troops to try to slow the HTS advance which is now moving south.

There’s another key ally Assad may not be able to rely on - Hezbollah. It’s armed wing has been devastated in its war with Israel in Southern Lebanon. 

JOYCE KARAM: Hezbollah today may not have the capacity, may not have the bandwidth to enter Syria again and to help Assad. 

NORMAN HERMANT:  With the war in Ukraine, Moscow too may be hard pressed to offer Assad more support.

But Joyce Karam believes Russia will fight to hold on to key naval and air bases - now within range of the rebel advance.   

JOYCE KARAM:  I don't see Russia giving up that presence. It's a major reason why it's backed Assad, and it's a major reason why it entered the war.

SAID AJLOUNI:  You can see all these green dots all around Syria represent the Iranian militia. The blue and redf represent the Russian. 

NORMAN HERMANT: Russia, Iran, Turkey, the US and more. There are many foreign agendas playing out in Syria’s civil war.

SAID AJLOUNI:  It is very sad feeling, very sad feeling. No one loves to see his country with so many flags, meaning the country already occupied with different interests.

NORMAN HERMANT:  In Damascus, life goes on. 

Joyce Karam believes for now, Assad is safe, but she says the bloodshed of Syria’s civil war that many had forgotten may be back.

JOYCE KARAM:  Is the Assad regime at risk? I don't think so. 

We're seeing the same playbook. So this could reignite the conflict in Syria in the ugliest sort of ways that we've seen and covered over the last 15 years.