2.7% swing to LNP
Preference count
Liberal National
Cameron Caldwell
Vote: 63.4%
56,224
Labor Party
Letitia Del Fabbro
Vote: 36.6%
32,524
- Cameron Caldwell leads by 23,700 votes.
- Previously held by LNP with margin of 10.6%.
- Cameron Caldwell succeeds Stuart Robert as MP.
First preference
Liberal NationalLiberal National
Cameron Caldwell
- Vote:49.1%43,554Swing: +4.5%
LaborLabor Party
Letitia Del Fabbro
- Vote:22.1%19,580Swing: -0.3%
One NationOne Nation
Sandy Roach
- Vote:8.9%7,896Swing: +0.2%
Legalise CannabisLegalise Cannabis
Suzette Luyken
- Vote:7.2%6,424Swing: +7.2%
GreensGreens
Scott Turner
- Vote:6.2%5,477Swing: -4.6%
IndependentIndependent
Belinda Jones
- Vote:1.0%931Swing: +1.1%
Indigenous-AboriginaIndigenous-Aboriginal Party
Marnie Laree Davis
- Vote:1.0%895Swing: +1.0%
IndependentIndependent
Stewart Brooker
- Vote:0.9%805Swing: -3.3%
Sustainable AustraliSustainable Australia
Quentin Bye
- Vote:0.9%779Swing: +0.9%
IndependentIndependent
Kevin Young
- Vote:0.7%641Swing: +0.7%
Federation PartyFederation Party
James Tayler
- Vote:0.7%607Swing: +0.7%
Australian DemocratsAustralian Democrats
Chris Simpson
- Vote:0.7%589Swing: +0.7%
Citizens PartyCitizens Party
Jan Pukallus
- Vote:0.6%570Swing: +0.7%
OthersOthers
-
- Vote:0.0%0Swing: -9.5%
Party Status: Safe LNP/Liberal 10.6%
Electorate Description
Fadden is a Gold Coast City Council electorate covering the northern part of the Gold Coast, extending from Labrador to the Logan River generally east of the Pacific Motorway. It includes the coastal suburbs from Labrador to Hope Island, as well as the inland suburbs of Gaven, Coomera, Helensvale, Oxenford, Arundel and Pacific Pines. On the road to Brisbane, the electorate includes parts of Ormeau and Pimpama, as well as Jacobs Well and Steiglitz further east. Covers 387 square kilometres. (AEC map of district)
Retiring MP
Stuart Robert
LNP/Liberal
Before his election to Parliament in 2007, Robert was the co-founder and CEO of a national recruitment firm, GMT Recruitment, with offices around Australia. Prior to starting his business, Robert served as an officer in the Army. He worked in intelligence and security during his 12-year military career, took part in a five-month tour of duty with peace-monitoring forces in Bougainville, and also found time to complete Masters degrees in business administration and information technology by part-time study. He was appointed Assistant Minister for Defence when the Abbott government came to office. He became Minister for Veterans' Affairs and for Human Services when Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, but resigned from the ministry in February 2016 over conflicts between his personal investments and his role as a minister. He re-joined the ministry as Assistant Treasurer when Scott Morrison became Prime Minister. Robert was appointed to Cabinet as Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme and Minister for Government Services after the 2019 election before becoming Minister for Employment, Workforce, Skills, Small and Family Business in March 2021.
Background
This electorate was created in 1977 and named after Arthur 'Artie' Fadden, Country Party Leader, Treasurer in the Menzies government after 1949, and for 40 days in 1941, Prime Minister of Australia. He replaced Menzies as Prime Minister in 1941 after Menzies resigned as United Australia Party leader, the UAP then voting to support Fadden as Prime Minister. Fadden is the only Country Party leader to truly serve as Prime Minister, Earle Page and John McEwen only filling the post temporarily following the death of respectively Joe Lyons and Harold Holt.
Former members for Fadden include Liberal Don Cameron (1977-83), Labor's David Bedall (1983-84) and Liberal David Jull (1984-2007). All three members also represented other seats in the House of Representatives. Cameron represented three electorates, Griffith 1966-77, Fadden 1977-83 and Moreton 1984-90. After winning Fadden in 1983, Labor's David Beddall moved to contest and win the new seat of Rankin at the 1984 election and represented the seat until retiring in 1998. David Jull represented Bowman from 1975 until defeated in 1983, returing to represent Fadden from 1984 until retiring in 2007.
The boundaries of electorates in this part of Queensland having undergone regular changes due to rapid population growth in the Brisbane-Gold Coast corridor. Fadden was originally a south-east Brisbane electorates but has migrated to the northern Gold Coast over the last four decades.
Past Results and By-election Prospects
Labor has won Fadden only once, achieving victory in 1983 on the election of the Hawke government. The seat was lost on new boundaries in 1984. The slow drift of Fadden to the northern Gold Coast has boosted the Liberal/LNP position. As the chart below shows, the Liberal/LNP two-party preferred percentage in Fadden has been consistently 5-10 percentage points higher than the party's Queensland two-party preferred result.
Despite Labor's victory at April's Aston by-election, prospects for a repeat performance at the Fadden by-election are not high. Labor has never won a Gold Coast-based Federal seat and that record seems unlikely to change at the Fadden by-election.
Past Winning Parties
| Year | Winning Party |
|---|---|
| 1977 | LIB |
| 1980 | LIB |
| 1983 | ALP |
| 1984 | LIB |
| 1987 | LIB |
| 1990 | LIB |
| 1993 | LIB |
| 1996 | LIB |
| 1998 | LIB |
| 2001 | LIB |
| 2004 | LIB |
| 2007 | LIB |
| 2010 | LNP |
| 2013 | LNP |
| 2016 | LNP |
| 2019 | LNP |
| 2022 | LNP |
(Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining.)
2022 Two-Party Polling Place Results
LNP majorities were recorded at 24 of the 31 polling places used at the 2022 election. Results ranged from 42.7% at the Pimpama State School external polling place on the other side of the Pacific Motorway in Forde, to 70.7% at the Paradise Point Community Centre.
(Click on polling place for results)
Only a third of votes were cast on election day at the 2022 election. The LNP two-party preferred percentage was 56.5% on election day, but the final LNP margin was significantly boosted by votes cast before polling day, the two-party vote 63.7% for pre-polls and 64.0% for Postal votes. The full break down of two-party vote by vote type is shown below.
2022 Preference Flows
Overall preferences split evenly in 2022 with strong flows to Labor from the Greens and Independent Brooker balanced out by strong flows to the LNP from One Nation, United Australia Party and Liberal Democrats.
Further Reading
LNP settles on Stuart Robert's successor for 'rolled-gold' Queensland seat, Mackenzie Colahan, ABC Gold Coast, 3 June. Includes comment on candidates for other parties.
Can Queensland Labor spin a federal by-election loss in Fadden into a win?, Mat Eaton, ABC News, 5 July
Candidates (13) in ballot paper order
| Candidate Name | Party |
|---|---|
| DEL FABBRO, Letitia | Australian Labor Party |
| TURNER, Scott | The Greens |
| SIMPSON, Chris | Australian Democrats |
| ROACH, Sandy | Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
| DAVIS, Marnie Laree | Indigenous - Aboriginal Party of Australia |
| LUYKEN, Suzette | Legalise Cannabis Australia |
| BYE, Quentin | Sustainable Australia - Stop overdevelopment/corruption |
| YOUNG, Kevin | Independent |
| JONES, Belinda | Independent |
| BROOKER, Stewart | Independent |
| PUKALLUS, Jan | Australian Citizens Party |
| CALDWELL, Cameron | LNP |
| TAYLER, James | Australian Federation Party |
More Information
Letitia Del Fabbro
Australian Labor Party
Del Fabbro has been a nurse educator at Griffith University since 2008. She completed a Bachelor of Nursing in South Australia, undertaking her final placement at the Gold Coast Hospital in 1994. Del Fabbro was the Labor candidate for Fadden at last year's Federal election.
Scott Turner
The Greens
Turner grew up on the southern Gold Coast and has worked as a scientific researcher and administrator in the healthcare, crisis accommodation, education, mental health and public transport industries. He was the Greens candidate for Fadden in the 2019 Federal Election, McPherson in 2022, and candidate for the state seats of Surfers Paradise in 2017 and Mudgeeraba in 2020.
Chris Simpson
Australian Democrats
Simpson began his career with an apprenticeship in general engineering before obtaining a builder’s licence. He is a past member of Master Builders Queensland, earned a Master of Project Management from QUT, and joined senior management teams responsible for major iconic Australian construction projects. More recently he has consulted in the renewables sector. Simpson was an Australian Democrat candidate for the Queensland Senate at the 2022 Federal election.
Sandy Roach
Pauline Hanson's One Nation
Roach was born a Queenslander, and apart from living overseas for 18 months, has always called Queensland home. She has lived on the Gold Coast since 1994 and has run her own bookkeeping business as well as working in small enterprises. Roach was the One Nation candidate for Fadden at last year's Federal election.
Marnie Laree Davis
Indigenous - Aboriginal Party of Australia
Davis is a proud Aboriginal woman from Darug country who was raised on Quandamooka and Kombumerri country. She has experience in both Qld and NSW governments, the Federal government and the community sectors. Her role is to advocate, mentor and provide therapeutic supports to build capacity that in turn helps to improve safety, resilience and healthy outcomes for families. Marnie has implemented programs and led teams to keep families together, reduce family violence and prevent youth offending.
Suzette Luyken
Legalise Cannabis
Previously the Legalise Cannabis candidate for Gaven at the 2020 Queensland election and the Queensland Senate at the 2022 Federal election.
Quentin Bye
Sustainable Australia Party - Stop overdevelopment/corruption
Bye has lived on the Gold Coast for the last 5 years after growing up in an undeveloped area of Port Stephens in NSW. He is a carpenter and builder, has run his own contracting business for more than a decade and now works as a height safety equipment technician. He was the Sustainable Australia candidate for Myall Lakes at the 2019 NSW election.
Kevin Young
Independent
Belinda Jones
Independent
Jones has lived and worked on the Gold Coast for over 30 years. She is a mother of 3, grandmother of 3, and a successful independent Journalist with a second part-time job to make ends meet.
Stewart Brooker
Independent
Brooker describes himself as a Dad and Volunteer and has a work background in Information Technology. Brooker states he has run teams up to 100 people and managed multimillion dollar budgets. He describes himself as having a unique mixture of corporate, government and community based experience. Contested Fadden at last year's Federal election.
Jan Pukallus
Australian Citizens Party
Pukallus has lived in Eagleby near the northern tip of the electorate of Fadden for 16 years. She joined the Citizens Party in 1999 and for the last 21 years has been the Queensland State Secretary. Pukallus was also twice Australian Judo Champion as a teenager. Contested Griffith at the 2010 Federal election, Forde in 2013, and the Queensland Senate at the last three Federal elections.
Cameron Caldwell
LNP
Has served as a local representative on Gold Coast City Council since 2012. He has previous experience running a small business and was first elected to Council shortly after being dropped as a state election candidate for Broadwater ahead of the 2012 state election.
James Tayler
Australian Federation Party
Tayler has lived in the region of Fadden for 36 years and has been a been a business owner of a civil engineering consultancy for 37 years. He was the Federation Party candidate for neighbouring Moncrieff at the 2022 Federal election where he polled 645 votes.
2022 Election Result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Robert | LNP | 47,190 | 44.6 | -4.1 |
| Letitia Del Fabbro | ALP | 23,638 | 22.4 | -0.1 |
| Sally Spain | GRN | 11,353 | 10.7 | +1.7 |
| Sandy Roach | ONP | 9,177 | 8.7 | +0.1 |
| Nathan O'Brien | UAP | 7,014 | 6.6 | +1.5 |
| Stewart Brooker | IND | 4,407 | 4.2 | +4.2 |
| Alex Forbes | LDP | 2,992 | 2.8 | -1.7 |
| .... | OTH | 0 | 0.0 | -1.6 |
| After Preferences | ||||
| Stuart Robert | LNP | 64,126 | 60.6 | -3.5 |
| Letitia Del Fabbro | ALP | 41,645 | 39.4 | +3.5 |